Will the recession lead to a lasting change in buyer behavior (in B2C) or will consumers revert back to old buying habits when the recession ends?


I think it will be all over the map. If you are an individual who prefers to buy a Pontiac, you will not have the choice of returning to your old buying habit. But this really isn’t the answer to the question, it only serves to demonstrate a point. The recession will change what options may be available and will certainly impact individuals perception of risk. Buzzwords such as value and frugality are currently in vogue. High end shoppers have most recently preferred that their newly purchased items be packaged in generic, no name bags. Along with an economic crisis there is a big spotlight on the condition of the environment. Living with less is being paralleled with a commitment of making less of an impact on the environment. There appears to be so much chaos occurring in the financial markets that a focus on individual financial fiscal management appears to be a focus for “not only” the more prudent/educated and knowledgeable types, but there appears to be a concerted effort on the part of the various government agencies to protect the less informed and uneducated populace. The surge of activity related to finding economically viable alternative energy will yield many new options for transportation and basic energy grid requirements. I don’t believe that we’ll go back to vehicles of the past just because we get pockets of reprieve from OPEC.

Bottom Line – Don’t rely on consumers to revert back to their old buying habits because by the time the option exist, they’ll probably forget what those “old” buying habits were. Will people start buying houses again, certainly. Will new house designs and sales strategies be different from where they were 18 months ago. You bet. Will consumers in conjunction with government watch dogs take a more conservative approach to credit card debt? I think so.

Max Clough
Interim Management Executive
seattle@oneaccordpartners.com

From an investment perspective… I hear deal makers speak as though the recession is episodic and therefore that we’ll revert to previous approaches to buying/selling companies.

The fundamentals got distorted the last 10 years and the norm going forward for consumers to business leaders alike will be to create and consume goods and services of value that produce tangible benefits.

Peter Klinge
Interim Management Executive
peter.klinge@oneaccordpartners.com
801.755.6820

Our basic economic order is built on a Keynsian Economic model – basically a “debt mentality”. As long as our economy has access to capital…it will spend. Yet, given the radical financial changes, a conservative approach will likely influence consumers, and more importantly businesses, for years to come. Ultimately – debt, yes, same old habits…not for a long time.

Jeff Rogers
Interim Management Executive
jeff.rogers@oneaccordpartners.com

This economic downturn is termed a “recession” but there are structural changes that make the “recession” different. There are some fundamental & dramatic shifts in banking practices (% equity to credit) that will change real estate and purchasing requiring loans. Also credit card companies are actually losing money due to non-payment so expect a tightening on credit applications, more discipline on payment dates & higher interest rates to offset non-payment losses. So bottom line as people go back to work & their disposable income recovers they will go back to previous low dollar consumer habits, but on higher dollar purchases requiring credit there are structural shifts in the credit providers that will ultimately restrict demand on goods and services permanently changing their habits. What we will not know for awhile is the degree of negative affect this structural shift will have.

Dale Hintz
Interim Management Executive
dale.hintz@oneaccordpartners.com
972-824-6923

Consumers have changed. They’ve been shocked by the reality of their situation – trees don’t grow through the sky…everything has a topping out and consumers now see that they are broke!

Consumption will be less conspicuous and savings will continue to grow as a percentage of GDP.

Jackson Weaver
Interim Management Executive
seattle@oneaccordpartners.com